Monday, April 7, 2008


OMB WATCH Social Security's "insolvency" date remains the same as last year - 2041. This is the year in which the program's payments will exceed its income. The year in which program's payments will exceed tax revenues remains unchanged - 2017. This is the year that the trust fund will first be used to make payments to beneficiaries

The actuarial deficit over a 75-year horizon is 1.70 percent of taxable payroll - a 0.26 percentage point reduction from last year. This number represents the combination of increased revenues and decreased benefits as expressed by percent of taxable payroll that is required to avoid insolvency

At its peak in 2030, Social Security will cost 1.7 percent of GDP more than it does today - keep in mind, too, that in 2030, Social Security is still solvent. That's not pocket change, but it's not the soul- crushing, economy-killing, puppy-eating monster that Entitlement Crisis Henny Pennys make it out to be. To put into perspective, if President Bush's FY 2008 war supplemental request is fulfilled, that $196 billion would represent about 1.4 percent of current GDP. And while the war is an expensive project, it's hardly bringing the economy to a halt.


At April 7, 2008 2:02 PM, Anonymous m said...

Let us not forget that the current administration is not only using the least favorable economic forecasts to calculate the insolvency date, but has also lowered the bar for that estimate.

Using more reasonable "expected" estimates continues to show the insolvency date extending into the future.

It is the Medicare fund which gives all appearance of having serious problems.

At April 7, 2008 3:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

George W. Bush will be remembered as the three trillion dollar mistake (and that's just the Iraq war). And this number doesn't include how much the destabilization of the mideast has contributed to the price of a barrel of oil which was just $23 when Bush took office. Imagine what all that money could have done for SS and Medicare.

At April 7, 2008 3:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not to mention that we are spending 400 billion dollars a year just on the INTEREST on the huge debt that the neocons have rung up in their borrow and spend spree.


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