Thursday, April 24, 2008

MORNING LINE

DESPITE the put downs of poll moving averages by the Washington Post and others (that we introduced in the 2000 election), they still seem to be working pretty well. Over 32 GOP and Democratic primary elections, the Progressive Review moving average has had an error of 6 points, not as good as we would like, but right up there with Survey USA, which as best as we can determine has the best record for individual polling this election among surveys that took on at least 10 elections. Other good polling has been done this season by

Zogby, Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen, McClatchy and American Research Group, all of which had errors of 6-8 points. The polling improved over the season, probably because pollster adjusted to the change in the political environment. The error rate for all polls in the first 12 elections was ten points. In the last 12 elections it was six.

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