Tuesday, July 8, 2008

IF WE INVADE IRAN. . . . DAY BY DAY

David DeBatto, Global Research If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a cake walk as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft. Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

That's just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran's newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country's nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis - irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200 - $300 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8-$10 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesn't get any worse than this.

Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

4 Comments:

At July 8, 2008 3:31 PM, Anonymous Keep shopping. Nothing to see here. said...

Children, the sick and elderly [in the U.S.] die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer.

Just like children, the sick, and the elderly have been dying in Iraq for the last 5 years. How ironic.

 
At July 8, 2008 6:14 PM, Anonymous Soylent Green said...

Absurd, rancid, imperialist, but NOT funny. Is this modeled from a cheesy combat game? Sadly, we're already on the hook for plenty of real-world worst case scenarios; no need to make them up; from Afghanistan to PIC.

 
At July 8, 2008 11:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hold it, didn't the Israelis attack the USS Liberty?

Does McCain's attack on the USS Forrestal count?

 
At July 9, 2008 4:37 PM, Anonymous Tom Puckett said...

Gary North is also thinking about this scenario, and provides a little more in-depth analysis:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north638.html

The thing that struck me about Gary's analysis, this time around, is that the "lets you and him fight" scenario has shifted to Israel and Iran. The last time I read similar material, it was suggested in the context of Israel saying, "lets you" (the US) "and him" (Iran) "fight."

To cut the Gordian Knot, how about just giving Iran its own nuclear weapon, in a glass case, to sit enshrined in some public square in Tehran, and any technicians they want with it, to advise on how to make it go off, but with the warning that if they ever used it, we would invite their entire country off the planet?

Essentially, that's the way things are now. Let's say that any country has one, or maybe several (less than 10) nuclear weapons. Why would they ever be agressive with them, when they know how many the US has?

If you don't know how many the US has, please take a look at Ben Cohen's BB video:

http://truemajority.com/fun/

Thanks, Tom

 

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