OBAMA IN SOME SERIOUS TROUBLE

The conventional media hasn't caught on, or is ignoring the fact, but not only was Obama's European trip a domestic political bust, but the Democratic candidate is running into problems he hasn't confronted before.

In just the past nine days, the Progressive Review's three poll rolling average for Obama has dropped 8 points and currently stands at just one point ahead of McCain, a statistical tie.

Also disturbing is a Zogby poll that reveals some striking changes in the political landscape.

What may be happening is that the Obama campaign - overwhelmingly based on symbolism and marketing techniques - has run into the real pros at manipulating such symbols and techniques - the GOP right. Obama's campaign was designed to make people feel warm and fuzzy towards him, but - in selling something - that doesn't hold up against a campaign based on negatives, doubts and fear to which people respond more forcefully.

For example, Obama's correct but unexciting argument that keeping tire pressure up could save fuel was quickly met by McCain staffers handing out air gauges to reporters and selling a gauge marked "Obama Energy Plan" for a $25 donation. As one commentator noted, Obama had been "Carterized" - as the GOP did much the same thing when Jimmy Carter wore a cardigan sweater as part of his plan to save White House energy costs.

In fact, the average driver could save the same amount of fuel driving 400 miles less a year, but campaign managers don't like to deny voters anything. Still, If Obama wanted to stay on the gimmicky side of things he could tried self denial - announcing that he was going to use five percent less jet fuel on his campaign than McCain, or maybe even switching to trains to bring to the fore America's most ignored and needed transportation alternative, and, incidentally, something those in the red states could use more of.

Far better would have been to have had a clear and appealing energy program from the start. But that wasn't what the Obama strategy was about and those who live by obsessively branding themselves risk death by someone who is better and meaner at the job.

ZOGBY - A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.

McCain made significant gains at Obama's expense among some of what had been Obama's strongest demographic groups. For example:

McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.

Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.

Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.

Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.

Obama's support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.

Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.

The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had been characterized as a triumphant tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. That trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive response ad by the McCain campaign that questioned whether Obama's popularity around the world meant he was ready to lead the U.S.

Catholics, who are always a critical voting bloc, favored Obama by 11% in mid-July. Now, they favor McCain by 15%.

Other groups where Obama's lead has suffered include college graduates and those with family incomes of $25,000 - $35,000.

Pollster John Zogby: "The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama's overseas trip have been trumped by McCain's attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping."