Tuesday, September 30, 2008

THE BRADLEY & THE FORD EFFECT

There's a lot of talk about racism among the Obama crowd, with speculation that polls might be overrating Obama because of the so-called Bradley effect, Bradley being a black gubernatorial candidate in California who showed up much better in the polls than in the final count.

But the problem with the Bradley effect - or the Wilder or Dinkens effect - is that the examples being used are two decades old, since which American ethnic attitudes have evolved.

A far more instructive example is the case of Harold Ford who ran for the Senate from Tennessee two years ago and came within 3% of winning the southern state. He was defeated, many think, because of a GOP ad in which a white woman talks abut meeting the then unmarried Ford at a Playboy party.

Now look at how the pristine Obama is doing in Tennessee. He's down 12-24 points in the past month. Translated into votes that's about 150,00 to 350,000 people who were willing to vote for Ford who don't feel the same way about Obama. That's not race; it merely reflects the fact the Ford was a better politician and more effective at reaching those who didn't look like him.

The Obama campaign should stop worrying about the Bradley effect and try instead to learn the Ford effect.

1 Comments:

At 3:10 PM, Anonymous votetheday.com said...

Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333

 

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PLAY IT AGAIN, SAM

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Your editor has been a musician for many decades. He started the first band his Quaker school ever had and played drums with bands up until 1980 when he switched to stride piano. He had his own band until the mid-1990s and has played with the New Sunshine Jazz Band, Hill City Jazz Band, Not So Modern Jazz Band and the Phoenix Jazz Band.

NOTES ON THE MUSIC

Here are a few tracks:

SAM SMITH'S DECOLAND BAND

'SHINE' 

JELLY ROLL

PHOENIX JAZZ BAND

APEX BLUES   Sam playing with the Phoenix Jazz Band at the Central Ohio Jazz festival in 1990. Joining the band is George James on sax. James, then 84, had been a member of the Louis Armstrong and Fats Waller orchestras and hadappeared on some 60 records. More notes on James

WISER MAN  Sam piano & vocal

OH MAMA  Sam piano & vocal