Wednesday, November 5, 2008

REVIEW'S MORNING LINE DOES IT AGAIN

The Review, one of the first journals to use moving poll averages, has once again scored well. Our percentage point error rates for this election are:

3% Presidential race popular count
4% State presidential results
6% Governor's races
3% Senate races
6% House races with polls in last month.

We projected Obama winning a sure 291 electoral votes, with 50 other votes leaning his way. We were 8 electoral votes off.

We projected a gain of 4-8 in the Senate. The Democrats have picked up 5 with another 3 too close to call.

We projected a Democratic gain of 0-1 in the governorships. They have picked up one.

The Democrats appear headed towards picking up new seats in line with our projected range.

We would have scored 4% on the governors if it hadn't been for Governor Schweitzer's excessive popularity in Montana: he won by 32% as opposed to the expected 17%. In the House races, with the exception of 2 Democratic races in Pennsylvania, the high errors came exclusively from Republicans who did much better than expected.

Here are some of our past scores:

In 2000 we were 3 points off for the presidential race.

In 2004 we were 1 point off.

In 2006 we projected correctly the number of new Democratic & independent senators. We projected 27-36 new Democrats in the House. There were 31.

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