Wednesday, November 5, 2008


The Review, one of the first journals to use moving poll averages, has once again scored well. Our percentage point error rates for this election are:

3% Presidential race popular count
4% State presidential results
6% Governor's races
3% Senate races
6% House races with polls in last month.

We projected Obama winning a sure 291 electoral votes, with 50 other votes leaning his way. We were 8 electoral votes off.

We projected a gain of 4-8 in the Senate. The Democrats have picked up 5 with another 3 too close to call.

We projected a Democratic gain of 0-1 in the governorships. They have picked up one.

The Democrats appear headed towards picking up new seats in line with our projected range.

We would have scored 4% on the governors if it hadn't been for Governor Schweitzer's excessive popularity in Montana: he won by 32% as opposed to the expected 17%. In the House races, with the exception of 2 Democratic races in Pennsylvania, the high errors came exclusively from Republicans who did much better than expected.

Here are some of our past scores:

In 2000 we were 3 points off for the presidential race.

In 2004 we were 1 point off.

In 2006 we projected correctly the number of new Democratic & independent senators. We projected 27-36 new Democrats in the House. There were 31.


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