Thursday, November 19

MORNING LINE

Progressive Review - We've noted before the political dangers lurking for Democrats in the health care bill. It's not getting any better. In fact, we can't recall any legislation that was meant to be such a major political asset that turned into such a dud - unless it was the Clinton health care plan.

While much of the blame can be placed on right wing propaganda, it also true that the plan has been hurt by the needless complexity of the measure, its uncertainties, the enforced mandate and the sense that government control will be increased greatly. This latter fear is based not just on conservative manipulation but on a generalized - and largely unrecognized (by Democrats) sense - that the Obamites are too full of themselves. In this regard, Obama is almost the exact opposite of Harry Truman and helps to explain why so many are being sucked by Sarah Palin.

And what happens when the bill is passed and private insurance premiums continue to rise rapidly? Unfairly to be sure, Obama will now be blamed. And what about all the presently unnoticed bleeps in the bill that will become major issues in the 2010 election? The Democrats will have bought the rights to every health care headache in America.

To get some sense of the problem, consider the latest Zogby poll from Arkansas. Asked whom they would vote for, respondents went for the incumbent Blanche Lincoln over Republican Gilbert Baker by a mere 1 point.

But far worse is what happens when the question is changed from just one of a candidate choice to "knowing that Lincoln supports the healthcare bill" whom would you choose? Baker then wins by 12 points.

In other words, this purported flagship legislation could easily become a political nightmare for the Democrats.

Worse, for those who wanted a decent single payer plan, this disaster could ruin the prospects for such legislation for years to come. The Democrats will not have only blown their own supposedly moderate, pragmatic, bipartisan proposal, but killed chances for anything bette