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SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH
Although every time we mention population growth and its effect on the global environment, we are accused of some sort of Malthusian conspiracy, substantial changes in population can occur simply by people getting married a bit later or by having smaller families.
China Population, 1991 - Deferment of marriage and childbearing reduces the number of children born by a couple in their lifetime and is the best way to depress population growth. This decreases the number of births in a given period and drops the fertility rate, which slows down the growth rate and size of the population. . . Over a 100-year period, when the 1st birth is at 20 years and there are 2 children/family, the family size would be 8. When the 1st birth is at age 25, the family size becomes 6.
. . . Prior success in the practice of late marriage and late childbearing occurred in 1970s. Marriage age was raised from 22 years to 24 years by the late 1970s, which averted 30 million births within a decade.
Unfortunately, the trends during the 1980s were a return to early marriage and childbearing such that by end of the 1980s 10% of married women had given birth by the age of 20. Had late marriage and late childbearing persisted through the 1980s, the mid-1991 population would have been 1.13 billion instead of 1.15 billion.
If the childbearing age can be raised by even 6 months reaching 23.5 years, 6 million births will be averted in the next 5 years. A 1-year to 24 years yields 10 million fewer births. It is reasonable to assume that it would be easier to convince young couples to defer their age at 1st births by 6 months to a year than to allow people to give up the quotas for 2nd births.
Michael Thomas Cibenko, New Oxford Review - In 1950 there were approximately twenty-eight births for every thousand people in the population; in 2007 that number was only eight births per thousand. When one pauses even briefly to consider it, the difference is staggering. It is also interesting to note that the average number of children per Japanese family today is, low and behold, one -- the same as in China. The difference being that in China it's by state mandate; in Japan it's by choice....
Japan's population peaked in 2005, and will plunge from its current 127 million to just 89 million in 2050 -- a decline of 30 percent. In terms of median age, Japan is currently the oldest nation on earth.
Japanese Government - The Population Census shows that Japan had 49 million households in 2005. Of that total, 58 percent were nuclear-family households, and 30 percent were one-person households. From the 1920s to the mid-1950s, the average number of household members remained at about five. However, reflecting the progressive decline in the birth rate through the 1960s, the size of household was down significantly in 1970, to 3.41 members. The size of household members continued to decline to 2.55 in 2005, principally due to the increase of one-person households and the conversion of households into nuclear families.
China Population, 1991 - Deferment of marriage and childbearing reduces the number of children born by a couple in their lifetime and is the best way to depress population growth. This decreases the number of births in a given period and drops the fertility rate, which slows down the growth rate and size of the population. . . Over a 100-year period, when the 1st birth is at 20 years and there are 2 children/family, the family size would be 8. When the 1st birth is at age 25, the family size becomes 6.
. . . Prior success in the practice of late marriage and late childbearing occurred in 1970s. Marriage age was raised from 22 years to 24 years by the late 1970s, which averted 30 million births within a decade.
Unfortunately, the trends during the 1980s were a return to early marriage and childbearing such that by end of the 1980s 10% of married women had given birth by the age of 20. Had late marriage and late childbearing persisted through the 1980s, the mid-1991 population would have been 1.13 billion instead of 1.15 billion.
If the childbearing age can be raised by even 6 months reaching 23.5 years, 6 million births will be averted in the next 5 years. A 1-year to 24 years yields 10 million fewer births. It is reasonable to assume that it would be easier to convince young couples to defer their age at 1st births by 6 months to a year than to allow people to give up the quotas for 2nd births.
Michael Thomas Cibenko, New Oxford Review - In 1950 there were approximately twenty-eight births for every thousand people in the population; in 2007 that number was only eight births per thousand. When one pauses even briefly to consider it, the difference is staggering. It is also interesting to note that the average number of children per Japanese family today is, low and behold, one -- the same as in China. The difference being that in China it's by state mandate; in Japan it's by choice....
Japan's population peaked in 2005, and will plunge from its current 127 million to just 89 million in 2050 -- a decline of 30 percent. In terms of median age, Japan is currently the oldest nation on earth.
Japanese Government - The Population Census shows that Japan had 49 million households in 2005. Of that total, 58 percent were nuclear-family households, and 30 percent were one-person households. From the 1920s to the mid-1950s, the average number of household members remained at about five. However, reflecting the progressive decline in the birth rate through the 1960s, the size of household was down significantly in 1970, to 3.41 members. The size of household members continued to decline to 2.55 in 2005, principally due to the increase of one-person households and the conversion of households into nuclear families.
Labels: POPULATION
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