Some polls are showing Brown ahead but when you analyze them the fault line becomes clear. They over sample independents.
This is a special election, remember - when only the hardest of the hard core come out to vote. Independents are notorious for staying home. If this was a broader national election then Coakley would be in trouble.
The hard core Democratic vote however, will turn out as they always do in the Kennedy state. They are not about to let a Republican take over the late Ted's seat.
Coakley has run a horrible campaign, completely underestimating the violent mood of change out there and her opponent.
Yet she will still win easily in my opinion because the core vote is what will count.
I have a nice Irish cap that might be delicious with salt and onions if I'm wrong!