| 2006 SMACKDOWN | Easy GOP lead | |||||||||||||||||
| GOP lead 5%-8% | ||||||||||||||||||
| TIE: 4% or less | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dem lead: 5%-8% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Easy Dem lead | ||||||||||||||||||
| No way | ||||||||||||||||||
| LAST FIVE POLLS, MOST RECENT ON RIGHT | Polls conflict or depends on candidates | |||||||||||||||||
| PRESIDENTIAL POLLS | AVG = Average of last three polls, which we use as our final projection | |||||||||||||||||
| GOVERNORSHIPS | Numbers= Democratic margin | State color = incumbent party | ||||||||||||||||
| AVG | ||||||||||||||||||
| ALABAMA | -6 | -25 | -15 | -18 | -21 | -18 | Lucy Baxley-D v Bob Riley-R | |||||||||||
| ? | ALASKA | -7 | -11 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | Ex governor Tony Knowles-D v Sarah Palin | ||||||||||
| 1 | ARKANSAS | 14 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Beebee over Hutchinson | ||||||||||
| CALIFORNIA | -18 | -18 | -13 | -16 | -15 | -15 | Phil Angelides-D v Arnold Schwarzenegger-R | |||||||||||
| 1 | COLORADO | 17 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 22 | 17 | Ex Denver DA Bill Ritter v. Rep. Bob Beauprez | ||||||||||
| FLORIDA | -2 | -6 | -7 | -10 | -2 | -6 | Crist v Davis | |||||||||||
| GEORGIA | -26 | -14 | -10 | -16 | -13 | -13 | Talyor-D v Perdue-r | |||||||||||
| 1 | IDAHO | -1 | 5 | 2 | First time in 25 years that a state race has been close | |||||||||||||
| ILLINOIS | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 9 | Blagojevich-D v Topinka-R with Greens at 7% | |||||||||||
| IOWA | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 | Secretary of State Chet Culver v. Rep. Jim Nuissle | |||||||||||
| KANSAS | 11 | 20 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 13 | Sebelius okay against Bennett. Libertarian 1% | |||||||||||
| MAINE | 5 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 10 | Green Party: 11% | |||||||||||
| ? | MARYLAND | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley-D v. Governor Bob Ehrlich-R Green - 3% | ||||||||||
| 1 | MASSACHUSETTS | 13 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 23 | Ex Asst US Attorney Deval Patrick-D v. LTG Kerry Healey- R | ||||||||||
| MICHIGAN | 10 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 6 | Gov Jennifer Granhom-D v Dick DeVos-R Green-1% Libertarian-1% | |||||||||||
| 1 | MINNESOTA | 6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | AG Mike Hatch-D v Gov Tim Pawlenty-R with Greens at 2% | ||||||||||
| NEVADA | -14 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -4 | -6 | ||||||||||||
| NEW JERSEY | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 8 | « | CORZINE WINS BY 9% [Our projection off by one point] | ||||||||||
| 1 | NEW YORK | Spitzer has no threat | ||||||||||||||||
| 1 | OHIO | 22 | 23 | 36 | 22 | 17 | 25 | Strickland v. Blackwell. Green 2% Libertarian 3% | ||||||||||
| OKLAHOMA | 11 | 28 | 26 | 21 | 31 | 26 | Henry ahead of Istook | |||||||||||
| OREGON | 0 | 5 | -2 | 11 | 7 | 5 | Green Party: 1% Libertarian: 1% | |||||||||||
| PENNSYLVANIA | 21 | 18 | 10 | 25 | 23 | 19 | Gov Ed Rendell-D vs Lynn Swann-R | |||||||||||
| RHODE ISLAND | -12 | -2 | -16 | -1 | -14 | -10 | LTG Charlie Fogarty-D v . Gov Dan Carceieri-R | |||||||||||
| SOUTH CAROLINA | -13 | -4 | -15 | -27 | -17 | -20 | ||||||||||||
| TEXAS | -20 | -13 | -11 | -16 | -21 | -16 | Perry safe with Kinky Freedman at 11% | |||||||||||
| VERMONT | -14 | -10 | -12 | |||||||||||||||
| VIRGINIA | 0 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | KAINE WINS BY 7% [Our projection off by 5 pts] | |||||||||||
| WISCONSIN | 5 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 11 | Doyle over Green | |||||||||||
| 7 | NET DEMOCRATIC GAIN | |||||||||||||||||
| 0 | DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DOUBT | 1.58 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 2.61 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | GOP SEATS IN DOUBT | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BEST POSSIBLE GAIN FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| 7 | WORST RESULT FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| SENATE | Numbers= Democratic margin | State color = incumbent party | ||||||||||||||||
| AVG | ||||||||||||||||||
| ARIZONA | -19 | -6 | -5 | -13 | -8 | -9 | Jim Pederson-D v. Sen Jon Kyl - R | |||||||||||
| ? | CONNECTICUT | -13 | -17 | -6 | -12 | -11 | -10 | Big difference in Lieberman's lead in last two polls | ||||||||||
| Democratic primary | LAMONT WINS BY 4% [Our projection off by 6 pts] | |||||||||||||||||
| FLORIDA | 17 | 28 | 26 | 35 | 24 | 28 | Looks like we won't have Katherine Harris to kick around any more | |||||||||||
| MARYLAND | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | Rep Ben Cardin-D v LTG Michael Steele-R Green - 3% Ind -1% | |||||||||||
| HAWAII | 13 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||
| MICHIGAN | 13 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 14 | Debbie Stabenow-D v Michael Bouchard-R Libertarian 1% Green - 1% | |||||||||||
| MINNESOTA | 25 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 13 | Clounty Attorney Amy Klobuchar-D v Rep, Mark Kennedy-R | |||||||||||
| 1 | MISSOURI | 1 | 4 | -1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | Auditor Clair McCaskill-D v Sen Jim Talent-R Libertarians -4% | ||||||||||
| 1 | MONTANA | 4 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | Tester-D v Burns-R | We list Connecticut as a ? | |||||||||
| NEBRASKA | -3 | 19 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 23 | No problem for Nelson | because of uncertainty as to | ||||||||||
| NEVADA | -9 | -9 | -23 | -16 | -17 | -19 | Lieberman's vote on | |||||||||||
| NEW JERSEY | 10 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | Sen Bob Menendez-D v State senator Tom Kean Jr-R | organizing the Senate | ||||||||||
| NEW MEXICO | 12 | 18 | 15 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | OHIO | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 9 | Brown-D v DeWine-R | ||||||||||
| 1 | PENNSYLVANIA | 16 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 11 | Bob Casey-D v Sen Rick Santorum-R | ||||||||||
| 1 | RHODE ISLAND | 4 | 10 | 14 | -1 | 3 | 5 | Ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse-D v Sen Lincoln Chafee-R | ||||||||||
| TENNESSEE | -12 | -8 | -3 | -5 | -1 | -3 | Rep Harold Ford-D v ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker-R | |||||||||||
| TEXAS | -13 | -13 | ||||||||||||||||
| VERMONT - IND | 6 | 32 | 19 | Sanders wins easily this indy seat | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | VIRGINIA | 1 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 2 | Webb v Allen | ||||||||||
| WASHINGTON | 15 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 13 | Libertarian: 1% Green: 1% | |||||||||||
| WEST VIRGINIA | 16 | 23 | 29 | 25 | 33 | 29 | Byrd in the clear | |||||||||||
| 6 | NET DEMOCRATIC SOLID GAIN | 6 SEATS NEEDED FOR DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY | ||||||||||||||||
| 1 | DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DOUBT | 4.67 | 6.33 | 6.94 | 6.6 | 8.55 | ||||||||||||
| 2 | GOP SEATS IN DOUBT | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BEST POSSIBLE GAIN FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| 5 | WORST RESULT FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| KEY HOUSE RACES | Numbers= Democratic margin | State color = incumbent party | ||||||||||||||||
| AVG | ||||||||||||||||||
| ARIZONA 1ST | 4 | -13 | -2 | -4 | ||||||||||||||
| ? | ARIZONA 5TH | -14 | -3 | -1 | 2 | -1 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ARIZONA 8TH | 10 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 13 | |||||||||||
| CALIFORNIA 4TH | -8 | -10 | -3 | -7 | -7 | |||||||||||||
| ? | CALIFORNIA 11TH | 2 | -1 | 2 | 1 | Jerry McNerney-D v Richard Pombo - R | ||||||||||||
| CALIFORNIA 26TH | -13 | -13 | Busby-D v Bilbray-R Peace&Freedom:3% Libertarian:2% | |||||||||||||||
| CALIFORNIA 50TH | -2 | 0 | -2 | -1 | « | GOP WINS BY 4% [Our projection off by three points] | ||||||||||||
| CALIFORNIA 50TH RUNOFF | -11 | -14 | -6 | -3 | -14 | -8 | ||||||||||||
| COLORADO 4TH | -6 | -7 | -4 | -10 | 3 | -4 | Stat Rep Angie Paccione - D v Rep. Marilyn Musgrave-R with Reform Party at 7% | |||||||||||
| COLORADO 5TH | 0 | -13 | -7 | -7 | Jay Fawcett- D v Doug Lamborn-R | |||||||||||||
| 1 | COLORADO 7TH | 11 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 12 | Ed Perlmutter - D v Rick O;Connell - R | ||||||||||
| ? | CONNECTICUT 2ND | -2 | 6 | 1 | -5 | -4 | -3 | Joe Courtney D v Rob Simmons R | ||||||||||
| ? | CONNECTICUT 4TH | 3 | 0 | -9 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 1 | CONNECTICUT 5TH | 0 | -6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |||||||||||
| FLORIDA 2ND | -5 | -5 | ||||||||||||||||
| FLORIDA 8TH | -7 | -19 | -13 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | FLORIDA 13TH | 3 | 2 | 3 | Jennings-d v Buchanan - R | |||||||||||||
| 1 | FLORIDA 16TH | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | Rep. Foley's former seat | ||||||||||||
| 1 | FLORIDA 22ND | -8 | -5 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 7 | |||||||||||
| FLORIDA 24TH | -2 | -2 | Vote machine whistleblower Curtis - D vs Rep Tom Feeney - r | |||||||||||||||
| GEORGIA 12TH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| ? | IDAHO 1ST | -6 | -2 | -7 | 4 | -2 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | IOWA 1ST | -13 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 13 | |||||||||||
| IOWA 2ND | -14 | 1 | -2 | -5 | ||||||||||||||
| IOWA 3RD | 11 | 12 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | ILLINOIS 6TH | -4 | 1 | -4 | 14 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| ILLNOIS 8TH | 19 | 5 | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
| ILLINOIS 10TH | -3 | 2 | -1 | |||||||||||||||
| ILLINOIS 14TH | -10 | -10 | Laesch-D v Hasert-R | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | INDIANA 2ND | 10 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 6 | |||||||||||
| INDIANA 7TH | 20 | -3 | 5 | 13 | 5 | Rep. Carson-D | ||||||||||||
| 1 | INDIANA 8TH | 15 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 13 | |||||||||||
| 1 | INDIANA 9TH | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | Baron Hill-D v Rep. Mike Sorel-R Libertarian 5% | ||||||||||
| ? | KANSAS 2ND | 2 | -1 | -4 | 9 | 1 | Nancy Boyda-D v Jim Ryun-R NOTE: Democratic poll | |||||||||||
| KENTUCKY 2ND | -18 | -14 | -16 | Libertarian - 2% | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | KENTUCKY 3RD | -6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | |||||||||||
| ? | KENTUCKY 4TH | -6 | -2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 0 | Former Rep Ken Lucas - D v Rep. Geoff Davis -R with Libertarians at 6% | ||||||||||
| MINNESOTA 1ST | -1 | -3 | -2 | |||||||||||||||
| MINNESOTA 2ND | -8 | -8 | ||||||||||||||||
| MINNESOTA 6TH | 5 | 8 | -6 | -1 | -10 | -6 | ||||||||||||
| NEVADA 2ND | -8 | -3 | -6 | |||||||||||||||
| NEVADA 3RD | -8 | -10 | -7 | -8 | ||||||||||||||
| NEW JERSEY 7TH | -2 | -3 | -3 | |||||||||||||||
| NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST | -5 | -11 | -14 | -9 | -8 | -10 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND | 8 | 13 | -1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | |||||||||||
| 1 | NEW MEXICO 1ST | 3 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||
| NEW YORK 3RD | -7 | -7 | Mekias-D v King-R | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | NEW YORK 19TH | -5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| NEW YORK 20TH | 13 | -14 | 11 | -3 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | NEW YORK 24TH | 4 | 8 | 11 | 8 | |||||||||||||
| 1 | NEW YORK 25TH | 8 | -2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | NEW YORK 26TH | 12 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -1 | -3 | Davis-D v Reynolds-R | ||||||||||
| 1 | NORTH CAROLINA 8TH | 7 | 4 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | NORTH CAROLINA 11TH | 8 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 10 | |||||||||||
| 1 | OHIO 1ST | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| OHIO 2ND | -3 | 3 | -8 | -5 | 3 | -3 | ||||||||||||
| OHIO 6TH | 16 | 13 | 32 | 16 | 20 | |||||||||||||
| 1 | OHIO 15H | 12 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
| OHIO 12TH | -5 | -5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1 | OHIO 18TH | 4 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 13 | ||||||||||||
| ? | PENNSYLVANIA 4TH | -4 | -4 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | PENNSYLVANIA 6TH | -3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | PENNSYLVANIA 7TH | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| PENNSYLVANIA 8TH | -8 | -10 | -9 | -5 | -8 | |||||||||||||
| 1 | PENNSYLVANIA 10TH | 15 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | Bush's pal Don Sherwood in deep trouble | ||||||||||
| SOUTH CAROLINE 5TH | 14 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||
| VERMONT AT LARGE | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| VIRGINIA 2ND | 4 | -6 | -2 | 5 | -8 | -2 | ||||||||||||
| VIRGINIA 5TH | -16 | -16 | ||||||||||||||||
| VIRGINIA 10TH | -5 | -5 | ||||||||||||||||
| WASHINTON 5TH | -5 | -5 | ||||||||||||||||
| ? | WASHINGTON 8TH | -13 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| WEST VIRGINIA 1ST | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1 | WISCONSIN 8TH | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| ? | WYOMING | -3 | -7 | -4 | -5 | 15 SEATS NEEDED FOR DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY | ||||||||||||
| 27 | NET DEMOCRATIC GAIN | |||||||||||||||||
| 0 | DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DOUBT | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | GOP SEATS IN DOUBT | |||||||||||||||||
| 37 | BEST POSSIBLE GAIN FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| 27 | WORST RESULT FOR DEMOCRATS | |||||||||||||||||
| 1.89 | 1.17 | 1.82 | 1.55 | 1.36 | ||||||||||||||
| Easy GOP lead | HOW GOOD IS OUR SYSTEM? | |||||||||||||||||
| GOP lead 4%-8% | ||||||||||||||||||
| TIE: 4% or less | The Review has closely tracked elections since 2000. In the 2000 | |||||||||||||||||
| Dem lead: 5%-8% | election it was 3 points off. In the 2004 it was one point off. These | |||||||||||||||||
| Easy Dem lead | results were produced by averaging the last 3-5 polls in a race. | |||||||||||||||||
| No way | ||||||||||||||||||
| Polls conflict or depends on candidates | ||||||||||||||||||